It’s been a little while since we last took stock of all the potential ’08 vacancies in the House of Representatives, but much has changed since our last installment in this series back in April.
Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeates, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.
District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA-52 | Hunter | R | R+9.3 | 60 | Running for President |
CO-02 | Udall | D | D+8.1 | 58 | Running for Senate |
IL-04 | Gutierrez | D | D+30.7 | 54 | Retiring |
IL-18 | LaHood | R | R+5.5 | 62 | Retiring |
ME-01 | Allen | D | D+6.2 | 63 | Running for Senate |
Since last time, we’ve added Democrat Tom Allen of Maine, whose official entry in Maine’s U.S. Senate race back in May allows us to mark his House resignation as definite. We’ve also added Ray LaHood, whose district tilts to the Republicans in Presidential contests. However, in 2006, Democrats picked up seven seats with PVIs redder than IL-18th’s (R+5.5). It should come as no surprise, then, that the DCCC has already begun its recruiting process in the district, and that state Sen. John Sullivan is seriously considering a bid.
District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
AK-AL | Young | R | R+14.3 | 75 | Under investigation |
AL-02 | Everett | R | R+13.2 | 72 | Speculation/Rumors |
AZ-01 | Renzi | R | R+2.2 | 50 | Under investigation |
CA-04 | Doolittle | R | R+10.9 | 58 | Under investigation |
CA-24 | Gallegly | R | R+4.8 | 64 | Botched a retirement attempt in 2006 |
CA-25 | McKeon | R | R+7.1 | 70 | Speculation |
CA-41 | Lewis | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Under investigation |
DE-AL | Castle | R | D+6.5 | 69 | Health issues |
FL-10 | Young | R | D+1.1 | 78 | Age issues/Speculation |
IL-03 | Lipinski | D | D+10.3 | 42 | Primary challenge |
IL-14 | Hastert | R | R+4.8 | 67 | Rumors |
IL-16 | Manzullo | R | R+4.5 | 64 | Speculation |
IN-07 | Carson | D | D+8.7 | 70 | Health issues |
IA-03 | Boswell | D | D+1.4 | 74 | Health issues |
IA-04 | Latham | R | D+0.4 | 60 | Possible Senate run |
IA-05 | King | R | R+8.4 | 59 | Possible Senate run |
LA-01 | Jindal | R | R+18.5 | 37 | Running for Governor |
LA-02 | Jefferson | D | D+27.8 | 61 | Indicted |
LA-06 | Baker | R | R+6.5 | 60 | Possible Senate run |
MD-01 | Gilchrest | R | R+9.8 | 62 | Primary challenge |
MD-04 | Wynn | D | D+29.8 | 57 | Primary challenge |
MD-06 | Bartlett | R | R+12.8 | 82 | Age issues |
MI-03 | Ehlers | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Speculation |
NC-09 | Myrick | R | R+12.2 | 67 | Speculation |
NY-23 | McHugh | R | R+0.2 | 60 | Speculation |
OH-02 | Schmidt | R | R+13.1 | 56 | Primary challenge |
OH-07 | Hobson | R | R+6.0 | 56 | Rumors |
OH-16 | Regula | R | R+3.6 | 84 | Age issues/Speculation |
TN-09 | Cohen | D | D+18.1 | 59 | Primary challenge |
TX-04 | Hall | R | R+17.1 | 85 | Age issues |
VA-01 | Davis, JoAnn | R | R+8.9 | 58 | Rumors/Health issues |
VA-11 | Davis | R | R+0.6 | 59 | Possible Senate run |
WY-AL | Cubin | R | R+19.4 | 61 | Speculation |
A bunch of new names this month: a recent Roll Call article named Reps. McHugh (NY-23) and Manzullo (IL-16) as possible retirements. Both of those districts–but McHugh’s R+0.2 district in particular–could see explosive races in an open seat scenario. I’ve also added several incumbents who could conceivably fall victim to primary challenges: Democrats Cohen (TN-09), Lipinski (IL-03), & Wynn (MD-04), and Republicans Gilchrest & Schmidt. Other crumb-bum Republican incumbents on shaky ground may face primaries of their own: Doolittle, Cubin, and Don Young are all ripe candidates who may be forced to smell the glove in a primary next year.
Any other retirement rumors floating through the tubes?
Boo!
She is such an entrenched force in the Marion County Democratic Party, that no one serious is really going to run against her (some guy whose name I forget did last time, and did terribly). And I can’t see any circumstance where I would support a primary — myself and most other Democrats here have too much respect for Julia — and that’s why it would kill me to see her beat in a general election.
McHugh was the only Republican to win ove 60% last year in New York.
I can’t really think of any Democrat in this area who can be good potential candidates.
State Assemblymen William Magee of Madison County or Darrel Aubertine of Cape Vincent are the only ones who come to mind.
The district may not be very Republican in national races, but it votes strongly Republican in local and state races.
Hi All — Haven’t posted in a long time (sort of fell out of the habit), but I’ll try to get back to it. As I’ve said here before, I absolutely adore my Congresswoman, Julia Carson, but it’s time for her to retire — most importantly because there are legitimate questions about her ability to do her job, and almost as importantly, if she runs for re-election it puts this seat in play. She’s gotten lucky the past couple of cycles in that the Republicans have not really gone after the seat with a top-tier candidate, and I don’t think she’ll get lucky again. She’s a legend in Indianapolis politics, but it’s time for her to step aside.
the Senate open seats are:
Confirmed:
Colorado
Possible:
Virginia
Idaho
Nebraska
Alaska
South Dakota
New Mexico
South Carolina – Primary
(North Carolina)
(Tennessee)
(Oklahoma)
(New Jersey)
We could very plausibly have five or six open seats in the Senate. Could be interesting.
I’d switch my registration to Republican in order to vote for these guys, Schmidt to beat in the general election, Gilchrest and Walter Jones because they are likely the best possible representatives we can get from these districts (especially Jones), though, there might be a small chance at Gilchrest seeing as how the former Republican Governor Ehlric has already endorsed the Democrat in this race.
is gonna get a primary, I think. He should probably go on your list with Schmidt and Gilchrest.
He’s played footsie with Gilchrest’s primary challenger Andrew Harris, but hasn’t actually endorsed him. Another issue: Boswell votes 90-95 percent with the Democratic agenda overall and now he’s a conservative Democrat?
That way I don’t have to explain to people in Iowa that Democrats don’t want to take your gun away, etc.,etc. I am tired of these litmus tests that go on. Boswell is a good man and a good Democrat who represents the majority of the district.